Our lone series play of Round 1 cashed this afternoon as the Stars won 5-3 in Nashville, taking a 3-2 series lead and guaranteeing they cover the +1.5 game series handicap.
That bumps us to 8-5 in the playoffs and back up to +2.7 units in the opening round, something we’re quite pleased with because sharing your betting plays publicly comes with a ton of responsibility. As much as you might hate losing a bet, it feels even worse when you steer a lot of other people wrong as well.
That’s the way we feel, at least, which is why we’re extremely selective on the bets and opinions that we post on this site. It’s also why we sat out yesterday’s action in the playoffs, why we’re sitting out today as well, and why we probably won’t be posting picks every day for the rest of the playoffs.
When there’s just a couple of games on the board every night, it’s much harder to find value and mistakes by the oddsmaker. Rather than force plays when we don’t feel like we have an edge, we’d rather sit out — a lesson that took a while to learn, but one that’s critical if you hope to actually make money betting hockey.
That said, we know you’re probably looking to bet on the NHL tonight (why else would you be reading this?) and we do have an opinion on the best way to play the Jets/Blues matchup tonight. Good luck if you decide to play it, and thanks for reading.
Odds below are at the time we made the pick. Be sure to check out our live odds page for updated odds on today’s games.
We backed Winnipeg in Game 3, largely because of how resilient the Jets have been in recent years. True to form, Winnipeg routed the Blues 6-3 that night, then earned a 2-1 road victory two nights later to dig itself out of an early 0-2 series hole and square things up going back to Winnipeg. When things are going south for this team, the Jets often find a way to play their best hockey and turn things around.
This time, however, we’re not sure they can rebound emotionally. It’s not that the Jets lost Game 5 on their home ice Thursday and now face elimination, it’s how they lost it. Winnipeg came out flying last game, riding the momentum of its 2 consecutive wins to score in the opening minute of the game and build a 2-0 lead going into the third. But then the wheels came off, with Winnipeg not only allowing the Blues to tie the game but then losing with 15 seconds left in regulation on what looked like a harmless play in front of their net. The Jets have lost a few games this year due to late collapses on home ice, but this one will be by far the toughest to come back from.
At the time we wrote this, we were getting a nice break on the price with the Blues available at -140 — 15 cents cheaper than St. Louis was listed at in the previous 2 games in St. Louis (it’s since gone to -150). That’s probably because of how the road team has won every game in this series, and bettors might also be buying into the Jets must-win mentality as well as their past success in St. Louis (5-0 in their last 5 visits). We’re not sure there’s much value to be found here on either side, which is why we’re officially sitting it out. But if you’re looking for some action tonight, Blues Moneyline -150 is the bet we’d recommend.
Bet this game at 5Dimes – Reduced juice odds on sides and totals!
Good luck!
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