The Dallas Stars earned a 4-2 win yesterday to square their Round 2 series with St. Louis at 1-1 and easily cash our Dallas +0.5 (regulation time) wager, moving us to 11-5 in the playoffs for +5.7 units.
It prompted an interesting question from one of our favourite Site Supporters yesterday: why lay juice on the +0.5 instead of taking a chance at the moneyline at plus money? Our reasoning is a bit complicated, but we wrote an article a few years ago that examines the pros and cons of regulation time betting and explains the math behind the wagers. Basically, as long as there isn’t more than 60 cents of difference in juice between +0.5 and the moneyline, the value is relatively the same. Our personal preference is to often take the underdog +0.5 when the price is reasonable (-130 range or less) and remove the potential of having our bets decided by the randomness of OT.
That doesn’t mean our approach is right, it’s just what we feel comfortable with. As we noted in yesterday’s writeup, Dallas +129 on the moneyline was a solid play as well, and hopefully a few of you grabbed that one instead.
Today, the Hurricanes/Islanders and Avalanche/Sharks series resume with Game 2 in each. We’ve got a bet and writeup for the evening clash in San Jose, plus an opinion on the afternoon start in New York that Site Supporters can access below.
Good luck and enjoy the games!
Odds below are at the time we made the pick. Be sure to check out our live odds page for updated odds on today’s games.
Any time we can catch a plus price on backing the Sharks to score goals at home, we’re interested. San Jose has filled the net all year when playing in The Tank, potting 4+ goals in 27 of its 46 home dates this year. That includes all 3 of the Sharks’ home dates versus the Avs this year, including a 5-2 decision in the series opener on Friday.
Think the Sharks need Joe Pavelski in the lineup to score goals? Think again. The absence of the captain’s 38 goals hurts, no question, but Pavelski was fifth on the team in points this season and just one of nine Sharks to earn at least 45 points (it’d be one of nine to get 50+ if Erik Karlsson hadn’t been limited to just 53 games this year.) Since Pavelski went down on that ridiculous series-changing major penalty against Vegas in Game 7, the Sharks have scored 10 goals in their last 5 periods without him.
Colorado’s struggled to score goals on the road of late (2 or less in 8 of 9 excluding empty netters, with the one exception being a 5-1 win in Calgary against a demoralized Flames squad), which is one reason we’re shying away from the full-game Over play instead. But if the Avs do get a few this evening (they got quite a few good looks on Martin Jones in the series opener), that only forces the Sharks to press the issue offensively themselves. One final note here is that we like the Sharks to win the game, and when the Sharks have won games this year, it’s almost always been due to their offense. Instead of laying -130 on the moneyline with San Jose, we’ll take a shot at pulling back a +120 return and cheer for 2 Unlimited’s Get Ready For This to reverberate through The Tank at least 4 times tonight.
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