We nearly got the perfect result in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final Monday as St. Louis jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, cashing our play on the First Period Moneyline +123 in the process. However, any rust the Bruins might have had after their 11-day layoff quickly disappeared after that as Boston dominated the rest of the way, scoring 4 unanswered goals to claim the opener by a 4-2 score.
That Bruins’ comeback spoiled our hopes of getting Boston on the series price at plus money if the Blues won Game 1. It’ll be interesting to see what line we can get on the B’s if St. Louis is able to even the series with a win tonight and head home with the potential of hosting 3 of the final 5 games in the series.
With betting lines tight once again and value hard to find, we’re going with another half-unit play tonight, this time on the total. Read about it below, and good luck on whatever you end up playing in Game 2.
Odds below are at the time we made the pick.
This is a great situational spot to back the Blues, who blew a 2-goal lead and were outshot 37-20 in Monday’s series-opening 4-2 loss. However, you’d need pretty generous odds to stand in front of the Bruins right now, and the current offering of +153 on the Blues moneyline isn’t enough to interest us to do it. Boston’s now won 8 straight games dating back to the second round of the playoffs, and the B’s are 11-1-1 in their last 13 in regulation.
Fortunately, there’s another way to exploit the Blues’ tendency to bounce back strong defensively after a defeat: betting the Under.
Since January 3 (the day St. Louis was infamously dead last in the NHL standings before turning its season around), the Blues have lost just 19 times — including the playoffs. Following a loss, they allowed 2 regulation time goals or less in 13 of 19 chances, and they gave up 3 goals or less in 17 of the 19 if you remove empty netters from the equation. The team goals-against average in games following a loss is well under 2, and Jordan Binnington has given up 3+ goals in consecutive starts just 4 times since taking the starting job in early January.
Considering the way the Bruins are cracking down on opponents in their own end these days (allowing 2 regulation time markers or less in 12 of 13), we don’t see the Blues lighting up Tuukka Rask and company here either. St. Louis’ best chance to even this series relies on keeping the Boston offense contained, something that will be a lot easier for the Blues to do if they stay out of the penalty box tonight. St. Louis took several bad penalties in the opener that interrupted its momentum and led to Boston’s equalizing goal in the second period, and we expect the Blues to be a lot better in the discipline department tonight facing the possibility of going home down 0-2 in this series.
There’s not a whole lot of value to be found on the Under 5.5, which has been in the neighbourhood of -140 most of the day, or even the Under 5, which pays just +114. For that reason, we’ll limit ourselves to another half-unit play and take a shot at the plus money on the Under 5, hoping for a 2-1 or 3-1 type of affair tonight.
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