NHL Tips For Tuesday, October 15th

Tampa laid an egg Saturday in Ottawa to spoil our Over play, but we’ll go back to the well with the Bolts one more time tonight in what looks like a good spot for a strong offensive performance.

When coming off a subpar effort, the Lightning tends to strike a lot in its next outing. We’ve already seen it this season as Tampa followed up an OT loss to the Canes (when it was outshot 44-13) with a seven-goal explosion four nights later against the Maple Leafs. This attack was held under 3 goals just 21 times during the regular season last year, and wasn’t limited to 2 or less in consecutive games from October 13 to January 13. Offense, not defense, was Tampa Bay’s issue in Saturday’s 4-2 loss in Ottawa, and we expect a strong bounceback effort from the Lightning’s talented forwards here. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have been gashed for at least 3 goals in each of their first five games, while Carey Price enters action tonight with a lofty 3.38 goals-against average.

We certainly don’t expect to be laying juice to back the Over 6.5 in many Canadiens’ games this year (or any other teams either, for that matter), but Montreal is playing with a ton of confidence offensively at the moment. Just once in five games have the Habs been held under 3 goals, and they just put up 6 (5 if you exclude an empty netter) against Jordan Binnington and the defending Cup champion Blues a couple of nights ago. Tampa Bay has surrendered at least 3 goals in four straight and is nearing the end of a six-game road trip here — not the ideal scenario to slow down a confident offense.

Again, 6.5 is rarely a bargain for a total, but both Team Totals are set at 3.5 here for a reason. If they do each bag a trio, we’re guaranteed a seventh goal and a cash on this wager.

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