We took yesterday off after going 3-1 Tuesday night.
Tuesday easily could have been 4-0, and it just as easily could have been 1-3. We split our two bets that went to OT, and the Capitals blew a 2-0 third-period lead but then scored in the final minute to win in regulation time. Our easy winner came on the Blackhawks who blew out the Flames 5-1.
The games have gotten lower-scoring and there’s still a lot of luck that goes into wins and losses. Just look at Vancouver/Montreal last night: the Canucks outshot the Canadiens 42-21, but Montreal (a -200 favourite) skated away with a 3-0 victory.
Twelve games on tonight’s NHL schedule. We liked quite a few games but have narrowed things down to 3 bets for this evening. Picks that didn’t quite make the cut included Jets/Capitals Under 5 and the Avalanche +0.5 in regulation time (or the +166 moneyline) in Chicago. We also sprinkled a little bit on the Penguins and Kings to go to overtime tonight, which paid +275 at 5Dimes.
Below are our 3 actual picks for tonight. Good luck if you’re tailing along.
Odds below are at the time we made the pick. Be sure to check out our live odds page for updated odds on today’s games.
The Flyers continue to be an Over machine. Their 4-3 overtime win over Detroit last night marked the 8th time in 10 games the Flyers went Over the total (there’s also a push in there, so they’ve gone Under just once in 10 games). A couple of the recent Overs Philadelphia has played required some late Flyers rallies, but the fact remains that Philly has scored 4 goals in each of its past 5 games.
New York’s also been playing high-scoring games of late, going 4-0-1 Over the total in their last 5. In their last outing, the Isles were blasted 6-1 by Tampa on home ice. They should be better offensively tonight and get to face Steve Mason (3.46 GAA, .878 save percentage). We won’t be surprised to see both teams get to 3 here, although a 4-2 game would obviously do the job as well.
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It’s not necessarily fun to back a team that has been shut out 3 times in their last 4 games, but we hope we’re catching the Canucks at the right time. Their team shooting percentage is a woeful 6% and that stat just isn’t sustainable (last season, only 1 team had a shooting percentage under 8%.) In other words, as bad as their offence is, they’re overdue to get some goals.
Vancouver had 42 shots last night in Montreal and didn’t get one. Now they face a Senators team that ranks in the bottom half of the NHL in defence. If the Canucks can score a goal early, even on a lucky bounce or deflection, it might have a snowball effect as the players loosen up a bit on offence.
Ottawa was pretty fortunate to escape last game with a victory, getting outshot 16-5 in the first period by Carolina. They’re starting newly-acquired Mike Condon (21-25-6 last year with Montreal) in net tonight and might play a bit more tentatively in front of him. We certainly don’t expect the Sens to pull away easily from Vancouver tonight, even with the Canucks playing the second night of a back to back. Getting close to even odds on Vancouver to win or draw in regulation time looks like a good bargain to us.
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As much as the Flyers are an Over machine, the Sharks continue to pump out the Unders. They’ve gone Under the total in 9 of 10 games so far, and the Under is 17-5-1 in San Jose’s last 23 games dating back to last year. They’ve allowed just one goal against in each of their first 4 home games, a big reason why they’re 4-0 at The Tank.
Calgary likes to play a fast open style at home but they seem to get a bit more defensive-minded on the road. The Flames have gone Under in 6 of their last 8 road contests, and their last one in Chicago would have gone Under as well if the Blackhawks hadn’t scored 4 goals in the third – including an empty netter and a meaningless goal with 1:44 left. Calgary has scored just 1 goal in each of its last 2 games, both losses, and held the Blackhawks and Capitals to 51 shots combined in those games.
It looks like Calgary’s best chance to win here is to slow things down, and the Sharks seem happy to play along. We’ll look for a 2-1 or 3-1 kind of game in this one.
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