After a wild opening night in the Stanley Cup playoffs, things settled down a bit last night with all three teams winning by 2+ goals (although the Caps did so with an empty netter) and two of three home favourites prevailing.
We split our two plays last night, winning easily on the Avalanche Team Total Under 2.5 (the Avs were shut out) but dropping the Over 6 in Boston/Toronto. The Leafs certainly held up their end of the bargain in the goal-scoring department and could have had more (how many breakaways did they have?) but Boston looked surprisingly flat after opening the scoring midway through the first period. It was also a surprise to see how well the Leafs protected a 3-1 lead throughout the third period on the road, not something we’ve seen much from the Buds recently.
On to tonight, where there are four more games on the slate. Honestly, we don’t really love anything tonight, but with so few games to choose from in the playoffs, you won’t end up betting much if you’re too selective. We’ve gone with two plays for today, as well as an opinion in Golden Knights/Sharks.
Good luck if you’re tailing along.
Odds below are at the time we made the pick.
Today’s Picks
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Pick > Blue Jackets Team Total Over 2.5 +107 (Pinnacle)
Pick > Penguins/Islanders Under 5.5 -117 (BetOnline)
The Lightning looked overpriced in the series opener, listed as -250 chalk against an opponent they were just -185 favourites against in January. This morning, we were seeing them as high as -280. Beyond the obvious narratives of this being a “must-win” game for Tampa Bay and how “there’s no way they’ll lose two home games in a row to Columbus”, what’s changed in the last couple of days? The bottom line is that if you’re determined to back Tampa Bay here, you’re going to pay a heavy premium.
But this play isn’t just about being contrarian (although it’s not a bad approach to use as a bettor, especially in the playoffs). The season-long numbers of both teams support this play as well, and the recent performances of each squad definitely do. This year, Columbus averaged 3.02 goals per game on the road while the Bolts allowed 2.90 per game at home. The Blue Jackets’ offense only got better down the stretch following the additions of Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, potting at least 3 goals in 7 of its final 8 games before striking for 4 in Game 1 of the playoffs. And although Tampa took its foot off the gas late in the year, we still put some stock in the fact that the Lightning has surrendered at least 3 goals in 8 of its last 10 and 10 of 13. Meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been beaten for 4 goals in 5 of his last 7 starts.
There was nothing flukey about any of Columbus’ goals on Wednesday. The first 3 goals came off the rush and the 4th was a beautifully-executed power play that was finished on a top-corner snipe by Seth Jones. The Blue Jackets are surging with confidence and can play loose knowing they’ve already got a win in the bag, while the pressure on Tampa Bay is massive. The Over 6.5 is also worth a look, but we’d rather isolate the handicap on supporting the team in a better mindset tonight. The inflated odds on Tampa Bay give us the opportunity to back the Jackets TT Over 2.5 at plus money in a game with a 6.5 total, and we’ll try to take advantage.
Bet this game at Pinnacle – The best NHL odds online!
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The Lightning looked overpriced in the series opener, listed as -250 chalk against an opponent they were just -185 favourites against in January. This morning, we were seeing them as high as -280. Beyond the obvious narratives of this being a “must-win” game for Tampa Bay and how “there’s no way they’ll lose two home games in a row to Columbus”, what’s changed in the last couple of days? The bottom line is that if you’re determined to back Tampa Bay here, you’re going to pay a heavy premium.
But this play isn’t just about being contrarian (although it’s not a bad approach to use as a bettor, especially in the playoffs). The season-long numbers of both teams support this play as well, and the recent performances of each squad definitely do. This year, Columbus averaged 3.02 goals per game on the road while the Bolts allowed 2.90 per game at home. The Blue Jackets’ offense only got better down the stretch following the additions of Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, potting at least 3 goals in 7 of its final 8 games before striking for 4 in Game 1 of the playoffs. And although Tampa took its foot off the gas late in the year, we still put some stock in the fact that the Lightning has surrendered at least 3 goals in 8 of its last 10 and 10 of 13. Meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been beaten for 4 goals in 5 of his last 7 starts.
There was nothing flukey about any of Columbus’ goals on Wednesday. The first 3 goals came off the rush and the 4th was a beautifully-executed power play that was finished on a top-corner snipe by Seth Jones. The Blue Jackets are surging with confidence and can play loose knowing they’ve already got a win in the bag, while the pressure on Tampa Bay is massive. The Over 6.5 is also worth a look, but we’d rather isolate the handicap on supporting the team in a better mindset tonight. The inflated odds on Tampa Bay give us the opportunity to back the Jackets TT Over 2.5 at plus money in a game with a 6.5 total, and we’ll try to take advantage.
Bet this game at Pinnacle – The best NHL odds online!
We wrote Wednesday about the potential to see some lower-scoring games in this series, and Game 1 nearly squeaked Under 5.5 despite a wild start that saw four goals scored in the first period (one of which was disallowed after an offside replay). Tonight, we anticipate a much more tentative start by both teams, each of them knowing that the result tonight will go a long way in determining the eventual outcome of the series.
The Pens have now allowed 3 goals or less in regulation in 21 of their last 22 games (excluding empty netters), and their offense has now scored 3 or less in 10 of 12. New York knows its best (only) chance to win this series is to slow the pace and not get into a skills competition with the Penguins. And although there were 7 goals in Game 1, the score was tied 2-2 with 8 minutes left in regulation before each team scored on a long point shot, not the types of goals that came off defensive breakdowns. We think there’s strong potential for a 2-0 or 3-1 type of game tonight.
Bet this game at BetOnline – 50% Free Play to $2,500!
Opinion: Golden Knights/Sharks Over 6.5 -105
Good luck!