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NHL Betting Tips For Wednesday, October 4

Jon and Derek

Here we go!!!

The new season is here and we couldn’t be more excited to get going. It’s great to be back and we’re looking to build on what was a fantastic season last year.

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If you followed us last year, you already know we do a lot of situational handicapping and also focus a lot on recent statistical trends. So we’ll be a bit lighter than usual with our betting picks over the first few weeks of the season, until there’s enough data to draw from. Around the start of November is when we start betting every day ourselves.

However, we do have one underdog play for today that we feel pretty strongly about, looking to take advantage of an angle that is 7-1-3 in its last 11 situations. Details are below.

But first, a recap of last year and what’s changing for this season….

2016-17 Recap

We finished last regular season with a record of 427-385 (+21 units) that we were really proud of, considering we were offering a betting opinion for pretty much every game on the board. We were a little more selective in the playoffs and went 13-8 (+5.2 units).

We also pumped a sh*t ton of time and effort into the site with the goal of helping as many people as possible win more bets and quickly see valuable information which would help in making smarter plays.

It was a lot of fun putting out the daily posts and engaging with everyone. However, we didn’t see quite as much support for our site sponsors as we’d hoped – support that helps justify the time and money it takes to run this site.

What’s New This Season

First of all, time constraints have forced us to dial back posting long writeups to our site from 6 days a week to 3.

Not to worry, we’ll still be giving out picks 6 days a week, we’ll just be doing it in a different way. Check out the What To Expect From Our Daily Tips page for more info on that.

We’re also hoping to send a lot more traffic to our sportsbook sponsors, which will allow us to spend even more time on the site each day. These are all books that we use personally and have selectively hand-picked as sponsors because we honestly believe they’re the best options for hockey bettors.

After all, you’re going to bet online somewhere, so we’d greatly appreciate it if you do it at the books that support us. Especially when there are certain ones that do the best job at catering to our style of betting, which exploits a lot of secondary markets like team totals and first period bets.

Again, we’ll still offer our opinion on most games and we won’t charge for picks – we don’t ever plan to! It simply doesn’t interest us.

We prefer to offer picks and advice for FREE, in the hope that our users help us grow and stay in business.

So in that vein, please be sure to check the following great options and contact us via our site or Twitter if you have any questions!

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Finally, we’d love it if you’d follow us on Facebook or Twitter and get involved in comments section of our daily posts – building a community is important to us. Let’s get even more engagement this year!

Odds below are at the time we made the pick. Be sure to check out our live odds page for updated odds on today’s games.

 

Blues Logo VS Pick Penguins Logo
Game: Blues @ Penguins
Time: 8:00PM ET
Pick: Blues First Period Moneyline +144 (Pinnacle)

Home openers are a very difficult spot for defending Stanley Cup champions.

Before the game begins, they have to stand through a long and emotional banner-raising ceremony that brings back memories of winning it all a couple of short months ago.

While the defending champs are feeling nostalgic, the visitors are often going through their normal pre-game routine in their dressing room, then hit the ice raring to go. When the puck finally drops, the home team has to suddenly flip the switch to the current season, making them pretty vulnerable.

The proof is in the numbers. Defending Stanley Cup champions have lost 5 of their last 7 home openers, and one of those wins (Pittsburgh’s 3-2 shootout win over Washington last year) came in overtime. If we extend that trend back even further, teams that won the Cup the previous year have won just 4 of their last 13 home openers (we’re not counting the 2004 champion Lightning, since the following season was wiped out due to the lockout.)

The first period trends are even stronger. Here’s how defending Cup champs have fared recently in the opening 20 minutes of their home opener the following season.

  • 2016: Penguins trailed 1-0 (gave up goal 59 seconds in)
  • 2015: Blackhawks trailed 3-1 (gave up goal 1:43 in)
  • 2014: Kings trailed 1-0
  • 2013: Blackhawks led 2-1
  • 2012: Kings trailed 3-0 (gave up goal 3:41 in)
  • 2011: Bruins trailed 2-1
  • 2010: Blackhawks were tied 1-1
  • 2009: Penguins were tied 1-1
  • 2008: Red Wings trailed 1-0
  • 2007: Ducks trailed 1-0
  • 2006: Hurricanes were tied 1-1

So in defending Cup champions’ last 11 home openers, they’ve held the lead after 20 minutes just once. Several times, they gave up a goal before the game was 4 minutes old, and they’ve gone to the intermission trailing the game 7 times. The cumulative score in those first periods is 16-7 for the visitors.

Pittsburgh spun its wheels in first periods all of last season at home, outscoring their opponents by just 1 goal over the entire year. The Pens might also underestimate the Blues a bit, given how banged up St. Louis is to start the season. Don’t forget, the Blues were still one of the NHL’s best teams in the second half of last season under Mike Yeo, and are very capable of capitalizing if the Penguins are (understandably) flat early.

At this +144 return and with the recent history of first period results in defending Stanley Cup champions’ home openers, we love the value on the Blues to win the first period.

Bet this game at Pinnacle – The best NHL odds online!

 

Good luck!

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