US

NHL Betting Tips For Saturday, November 19

Jon and Derek

It was a 3-2 night for the leans yesterday.

Pittsburgh beat the Islanders in OT, Washington edged the Red Wings in regulation time and Calgary stayed under its 2.5 team total, but the Rangers and Canadiens both fell a goal short of going over their team totals.

3 of the 5 games ended with 3-2 finals, while the Rangers/Blue Jackets game would have as well if not for a last-second empty netter. It’s absolutely crazy how many games in the NHL these days end with a total number of 5 goals scored. We were chatting with guys on Twitter last night about how huge a difference it is betting Over 5 or Over 5.5.

There’s so many ways to get to 5. Once it’s a 2-2 game, you’re guaranteed a fifth. If it’s a 3-1 game late in the third period, the losing team will pull their goalie and you have a chance at an empty netter to make it 4-1.

But getting to that sixth goal is a lot harder. If it’s a 4-1 game, it’s pretty rare for the losing teams to pull their goalies. And if it’s a 2-2 game in the third period, the teams get pretty tight defensively trying to ensure themselves of at least one point if the game goes to OT. Once you’re in OT or a shootout, the game will finish 3-2.

Bottom line is that we’re always hesitant to take Over 5.5 in a game. If we think there’s a good chance for lots of goals, we’ll often look at the first period total (which is always 1.5, with varying juice) or the team totals instead.

11 games in the NHL today, including a couple of afternoon starts. We already posted a breakdown and lean for the Tampa/Philly game on Twitter and Facebook, but below is our thoughts on the rest of tonight’s NHL board.

Quick heads up that we’re taking tomorrow off from the writeups and won’t be sending out an email. If you’re interested, check out our Twitter to see who we like on Sunday.

Good luck tonight!

Odds below are at the time we made the pick. Be sure to check out our live odds page for updated odds on today’s games.

Devils Logo VS Pick Kings Logo
Game: Devils @ Kings Lean
Time: 4:00PM ET
Lean: Kings Team Total Under 2.5 -113

Reasons to bet New Jersey: Devils were 3 minutes away Thursday from earning a point for the ninth time in 10 days, losing 3-2 in Anaheim on a late goal. LA has scored 9 goals in its last 5 games.

Reasons to bet Los Angeles: Kings snapped 4-game losing streak Thursday with 4-2 win at home over Edmonton. Devils haven’t scored a power play goal in 7 games.

Other things to know:

  • New Jersey is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings
  • New Jersey is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in LA
  • New Jersey is playing its 3rd game of a 4 game western road trip
  • LA is 6-2 at home
  • LA has allowed 14 regulation time goals in its last 5 games
  • New Jersey has gone to OT in 3 of its last 5 games
  • The Under is 17-6-3 in the last 26 meetings
  • The Under is 9-2-2 in LA’s last 11 games
  • The Under is 6-1-6 in New Jersey’s last 13 road games

Probable goalies: Schneider, Budaj

Jets Logo VS Pick Bruins Logo
Game: Jets @ Bruins Lean
Time: 7:00PM ET
Lean: Jets +0.5 (regulation time) -118

Reasons to bet Winnipeg: The Jets have won 4 of their last 6 games. Boston is coming off a 1-0 loss Thursday in Minnesota and has scored 4 goals in its last 3.

Reasons to bet Boston: The Bruins have allowed just 2 goals in their last 3 games, 4 in their last 4 and 7 in their last 5. Winnipeg has just 3 wins in 9 road games (3-4-2).

Other things to know:

  • Boston is 18-4 in its last 22 home games against Winnipeg
  • Winnipeg has scored 2+ goals in each of its last 10 games
  • Winnipeg has allowed 2+ goals in 9 of its last 10 games
  • Boston beat Winnipeg 4-1 Oct. 17 in Winnipeg
  • The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings
  • The home team is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings
  • Boston is playing its first home game after a 3-game western road trip

Probable goalies: Hutchinson, Rask

Panthers Logo VS Pick Senators Logo
Game: Panthers @ Senators Lean
Time: 7:00PM ET
Lean: Under 5 +111

Reasons to bet Florida: Ottawa has scored 1 goal in regulation time 7 times in its last 10 games.

Reasons to bet Ottawa: The Senators are 6-3-1 at home and the Panthers are 2-5-0-1 on the road. Florida has allowed 21 goals in its last 7 games.

Other things to know:

  • The Over is 9-5 in Florida’s games this year
  • The Under is 11-6 in Ottawa’s games this year
  • Florida lost 6-1 Thursday in Toronto
  • Ottawa lost 5-1 Thursday at home to Nashville
  • Florida is 3-9 in its last 12 visits to Ottawa
  • Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman are questionable for Ottawa

Probable goalies: Luongo, Anderson (confirmed)

Leafs Logo VS Pick Canadiens Logo
Game: Leafs @ Canadiens Lean
Time: 7:00PM ET
Lean: Maple Leafs Team Total Over 2.5 +111

Reasons to bet Toronto: The Leafs have won 6 of their 8 games this month and scored 6+ goals in 4 of those victories. The Canadiens lost last night in Carolina and is in its first winless skid of the season, 0-2-1 in its last 3 games.

Reasons to bet Montreal: The Canadiens are still unbeaten at home in regulation time (10-0-1). Montreal has won 14 of the last 17 meetings with the rival Leafs.

Other things to know:

  • Toronto has won just 1 game on the road (1-4-2-1)
  • Toronto has lost its last 7 games in Montreal
  • Toronto has gone Over in 5 of its last 6
  • Montreal has allowed 10 goals in its last 3 games
  • Montreal has not gone Under in 8 games (3 Overs and 5 pushes)

Probable goalies: Andersen (confirmed), Price

Penguins Logo VS Pick Sabres Logo
Game: Penguins @ Sabres Lean
Time: 7:00PM ET
Lean: Sabres +0.5 (regulation time) -123

Reasons to bet Pittsburgh: The Penguins have won their last 9 meetings with Buffalo, outscoring the Sabres 37-13. Buffalo has lost 6 straight games and is just 1-4-1-1 at home.

Reasons to bet Buffalo: Pittsburgh played last night and this will be the Pens’ 3rd road game in 4 nights.

Other things to know:

  • Buffalo has allowed 4 goals in 4 consecutive games
  • Buffalo has scored 1 goal or less in 6 of its last 8 games
  • Pittsburgh’s last 3 wins over Buffalo have been by 1 goal
  • Pittsburgh is 13-3 in its last 16 visits to Buffalo
  • The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Buffalo
  • The Under is 9-1-2 in Buffalo’s last 12 games
  • Patric Hornqvist is doubtful for Pittsburgh
  • Ryan O’Reilly is doubtful for Buffalo

Probable goalies: Fleury, Nilsson (confirmed)

Oilers Logo VS Pick Stars Logo
Game: Oilers @ Stars Lean
Time: 7:00PM ET
Lean: Under 5.5 -105

Reasons to bet Edmonton: The Oilers have outshot 5 of their last 6 opponents and are seeking revenge for 3-2 loss to Stars a week ago in Edmonton.

Reasons to bet Dallas: Stars have earned points in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10. Edmonton has lost 5 straight, allowing 3+ goals in each of those games.

Other things to know:

  • The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, including 3-0 in the last 3
  • Edmonton is 5-4-1 on the road
  • Dallas is 4-2-2 at home
  • Edmonton has scored 6 goals in its last 4 games
  • Dallas has allowed 2 goals or less 4 times in its last 5 games
  • Edmonton is 8-35-1 in its last 44 games in Dallas
  • The Under is 10-4-1 in Edmonton’s last 15 games
  • The Under is 5-1 in Dallas’ last 6 home games
  • Patrick Sharp is expected back in the lineup for Dallas

Probable goalies: Talbot, Lehtonen

Avalanche Logo VS Pick Wild Logo
Game: Avalanche @ Wild Lean
Time: 8:00PM ET
Lean: Under 5 +100

Reasons to bet Colorado: The Avalanche beat Minnesota 1-0 Nov. 5 in Colorado. The Wild has scored just 9 regulation time goals in its last 6 games.

Reasons to bet Minnesota: The Wild has allowed 10 goals in its last 10 games, while the Avalanche has scored just 13 regulation time goals in its last 9.

Other things to know:

  • Minnesota is 5-2 at home
  • Colorado is 3-5 on the road
  • The Under is 4-10 in Minnesota’s games this year
  • Colorado has scored 2 goals or less in 7 of its last 9
  • Colorado is 1-7 in its last 8 games at Minnesota
  • The Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings
  • Duchene and Landeskog are questionable for Colorado

Probable goalies: Varlamov, Dubnyk

Sharks Logo VS Pick Coyotes Logo
Game: Sharks @ Coyotes Lean
Time: 8:00PM ET
Lean: Under 5 +120

Reasons to bet San Jose: The Sharks have allowed just 7 goals in their last 5 games. Arizona has lost 4 straight, scoring 4 goals in those 6.

Reasons to bet Arizona: The Coyotes are playing improved defence of late, allowing 10 regulation time goals in their last 5 outings. San Jose has lost 2 straight and is playing the final game of a 6-game road trip.

Other things to know:

  • The Under is 13-2 in San Jose’s games this year
  • San Jose has scored 2 goals or less in 4 of its last 7
  • Arizona beat San Jose 3-2 Nov. 1 in Arizona (San Jose outshot Arizona 41-30)
  • The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Arizona
  • Hertl is questionable for San Jose
  • Arizona is playing its 3rd game in 4 nights

Probable goalies: Jones, Smith

Blackhawks Logo VS Pick Canucks Logo
Game: Blackhawks @ Canucks Lean
Time: 10:00PM ET
Lean: Over 5.5 +126

Reasons to bet Chicago: The Blackhawks have collected points in 12 of their last 13 games after winning 3-2 last night in Calgary. Vancouver has allowed 29 goals in its last 7 games.

Reasons to bet Vancouver: The Canucks have won 3 of their last 5 and are 6-4 at home this season.

Other things to know:

  • Vancouver has not yet held a lead after the first period this season
  • This is Vancouver’s final game of a 4-game homestand
  • The Over is 5-1-1 in Vancouver’s last 7 games
  • The Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings
  • 5 of Chicago’s last 7 games have featured 5 goals or more

Probable goalies: Darling, Miller

 

Good luck!

Sign up below to get our daily NHL tips sent to your email the minute we post. That way, you will always get the best odds on each game…